Ice Caps, Ice Packs, What Do They Mean?

A major component to the future weather of the Earth is what is happening with all the ice. Whether we're referring to the winds that drive El Niño or the ocean conveyors, what the ice packs do and how they do it will affect life here for years to come.

The first safe assumption is that there is going to be a lot of water. Whatever causes global climate change (probably an excessive human production of greenhouse gasses), there's going to be a lot of melting in at least the Arctic region before things begin to cool down, again . . . if they do.

That is to say, we already know that Greenland is getting warmer than freezing in the Summer, and it may not be unreasonable to assume that this melting trend will continue. Also, the Arctic Ocean has less ice cover every year. Based on these two observations, let's assume that the northern ice cover of Earth will continue to melt towards zero ice cover.

In contrast to the center of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the highest temperatures measured toward the center of the Antarctic Ice Sheet do not come close to crossing the freezing mark, with the record high (9.9 degrees Fahrenheit at South Pole Station) well below freezing.

There are two extremes that we can consider as possibilities as the northern latitudes melt: the (1) positive feedback loop and the (2) negative feedback loop. Under assumption one, things continue to get hotter. Under assumption two, things get colder.

(1) Everything melts. In fact, the north gets so hot that it starts to raise global temperatures, which in turn melts the south pole. This is exactly the trend we're seeing now. The north continues to melt just a little faster than expected. Under this positive feedback loop, eventually the north pole will not even have ice in the winter, creating higher pressure in the northern latitudes (from the ocean heating the air in the winter). This will then force more hot air south from the equator in the southern summer, allowing the south pole temperatures to climb above freezing and melt the southern ice.

(2) Everything stops. The northern ice melts so quickly that the cold water interrupts ocean conveyors, specifically the North Atlantic's Gulf Stream. So instead of everything melting, we are again plunged into another ice age.

Chances are that the reality will fall somewhere between these two extremes, rather than one or the other coming to fruition. However, the same old status quo, which is in between, is somewhat unlikely given the rapid changes that are occurring in the world environment. We can probably expect slightly more turbulent weather on the world scale for some amount of time to come.